Ajit Pawar’s NCP can win 23 seats, will struggle in the rest: Internal survey

Mumbai: A recent survey conducted by the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) suggests that the party’s situation, along with that of their ruling alliance ‘Mahayuti’, is improving. The survey indicates that the NCP is confident of winning 23 seats at present, with an additional 16 seats requiring more effort to secure victory. However, circumstances are unfavourable in the remaining 31 seats.
Of these 31 seats, the NCP believes it can win 21 if votes from Shiv Sena and BJP are transferred to NCP candidates. The party trails significantly in the other 10 seats. The NCP aims to contest a total of 70 seats as an alliance partner, a figure likely to be discussed with Union Home Minister Amit Shah in a meeting on Tuesday evening. The party is expected to receive approximately 60 seats.
The internal survey also indicates improving chances for the Mahayuti alliance. In September, 39.3% of respondents preferred to vote for Mahayuti, compared to 38.6% for the opposition-led MVA coalition. This marks an improvement from August, when only 37.01% chose Mahayuti against 42.43% for MVA. In July, the figures were even less favourable for Mahayuti, with 34.68% support compared to MVA’s 43.2%.
The NCP split into two factions last July when Ajit Pawar, along with 40 MLAs, joined the ruling coalition. Although the party had 54 MLAs at the time of the split, the Ajit Pawar-led faction is considering all 54 NCP MLAs, plus six additional MLAs, for seat-sharing talks.
On 1 September, the NCP president instructed party workers to prepare for 60 seats initially. “The decision on the rest of the seats will also be informed to the party members once they are cleared during the talks,” he added.
The survey further reveals that Ajit Pawar’s performance as deputy chief minister has improved significantly. Currently, 48.38% of respondents are very satisfied with Pawar’s performance, and 10.07% are satisfied. Only 4.28% are somewhat dissatisfied, while 27.61% are very dissatisfied. These figures show improvement from June, when only 29.74% were very satisfied and 16.29% satisfied.
NCP leadership is encouraged by these improved figures, viewing them as a ray of hope considering the party’s performance in the Lok Sabha election. A senior NCP leader stated, “The survey figures are a positive sign for us. From only six assembly seats in the Lok Sabha elections to comfortably winning 23 seats is a huge improvement. There are other 16 seats which the party is hoping to win after making desired changes. We can also win other seats with the help of our allies Shiv Sena and BJP.”
In the recent polls, the party won only one of five seats, losing even in the Baramati Lok Sabha constituency, long considered a stronghold of the Pawar family.
The survey indicates that the party is gaining strength in western and north Maharashtra, while facing setbacks in Marathwada due to the BJP’s influence. “The anger against BJP in the Maratha community still persists and is affecting us as an alliance partner,” an insider revealed.
Suraj Chavan, spokesperson and NCP youth wing president, expressed optimism about the party’s prospects. “NCP’s performance in Lok Sabha has never been great, but we have always done well in the assembly elections. This time, we are conducting a positive campaign and raising awareness about the government’s achievements through ‘Jan Sanman Yatra’. We are hoping to win more than 60 seats in the elections,” Chavan asserted.